In March 2019, Lyft went down in history as the first ride-sharing company to IPO. The initial valuation of $24.3 billion (vs $82 billion for Uber) was only a distant memory shortly after its shares became publicly tradeable. Since then, Lyft lost more than half of its market capitalization.
On the positive side of things, the company sits on $2.67 billion cash reserves. If used wisely, it could be used to invest in necessary technologies, R&D, or even to buy a smaller competitor, that could provide much necessary competitive advantage. Lyft has also managed to reduce its losses to $398.1 million, which was lower compared to similar period last year. The company acted quickly and reduced its headcount by 17% (982 people),which will translate in reduced operational costs during the hardship period.
It is far from all perfect in the Lyft’s world, though. The company faces ever-increasing competition in ride-hailing industry, as more companies enter the market every year. The size of the pie is limited and most of the growth in cities worth running in (city size does matter),can only be taken away from other operators instead of organic growth from new sign ups.
Covid-19 hit the industry hard and Lyft is no exception to that. In California alone, the demand for ride-hailing dropped by 60%. And while different countries having different successes fighting off the virus, common trends are remarkably similar: fewer late evening/night trips related to city night life, fewer day trips by inner city professionals during the day.
Furloughs, growing trend of remote work, and change in public sentiment towards non-essential travel will have negative impact on Lyft’s earnings, as Q2 will become the hangover after Q1 2020.
The markets also getting less and less patient when it comes to the industry’s holy grail: autonomous driving. In 2018, the company has made a handful of investments and partnerships to achieve is driverless goals. What 2019 and 2020 has shown so far is that even though countless companies claiming the autonomous driving technology being just around the corner, the goal post keeps moving and what looked like 2-5-year sprint, is now turning into 10-20-year marathon.
The company may see some level of growth, as the world tries to return to normality, albeit with varying success. However, it is exceedingly difficult to see any reasons why it should suddenly outperform itself in an increasingly competitive market and negative worldwide economic prognosis. It is highly likely that the company will try to please the investors by acquiring or partnering with several technology companies which could boost its shares price. There will be a substantial pressure on Lyft’s management to deliver extra value from previous investment such as augment reality startup Blue Vision Labs. It is more likely that the company will see further reductions on its share price.
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